This
article is not making a geopolitical statement, it is merely explaining the key
driver in the massive expansion of professional wargaming.
The time,
effort and money injected into professional wargaming in NATO has increased
dramatically in the past five years. The reason is market forces. In defense
terms, market forces means war is coming.
A crude
summary is that China wants a greater China, which includes areas currently
with their own government. A major rival is Japan. Japan’s defense spending is
rising and by 2030, it will be the third largest in the world. Shortly after
that Japan, own its own, would be able to fight China to a standstill. Anyone
who has watched Shogan should grasp that Japan has a warrior culture and when
mobilized, the whole national will would be engaged in supporting the war
effort.
India is
also out growing China. The British Empire valued the contribution of the
Indian soldier and no-one who has taught Indian students would doubt they would
fight if their country was threatened. So, if China wants to do a regional land
grab, it has a limited window of opportunity before its. neighbors reach their
full military readiness.
Russia is
continually testing Western resolve, on the sea, under the sea, in the air and
wants to reclaim the Russian empire. Putin is routinely threatening the West
with war and destruction as he seeks to define his legacy. Now Western leaders
have broken the cultural norm and have openly threatened Russia (and China)
back.
The impact
of Russian/ Chinese rhetoric and policy statements has been to persuade those
who really matter in the West, that war is coming. Of course, future history is
decided by leaders. Russia and China might decide to become liberal
democracies, or at last join the world order again. Western leaders might
decide it is not worth fighting over the wilderness of Finland or obscure
Baltic Republics. Perhaps some negotiated adjustment of borders might be
sufficient to avert war. Wargames are not about predicting geopolitical futures; they are largely focussed on war fighting when diplomacy fails.
In the
meantime, there is a surge in the frequency and importance of the wargames
behind closed doors. It is no secret that the games are nearly all about
fighting Russia and China. War is coming. Professional wargaming is now a
career option for school leavers.